soru

Michigan State Men's Basketball (Spartans) team has 4 games left in their schedule. The probability of a loss -independent of who they are playing against- for Spartans is theta. On the other hand, if they lose a game, the probability of losing the next game becomes 0.6.theta^2.
If they lose two cnsecutive games, the probability of losing the third consecutive game is again theta. Given these characteristics of Spartans and the observation that Spartans loses only 2 of their final 4 matches, what is the most likely value for theta?